Scholz’s party set to defeat AfD in crunch regional vote

The forecast victory, although slight, for the Social Democrats will be a major relief to the least popular German chancellor on record

The Social Democrats, the party of Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, are narrowly ahead of the far-Right Alternative for Germany party in the eastern state of Brandenburg, according to exit polls.
The forecast victory, although slight, will be a major relief to Mr Scholz, the least popular German chancellor on record whose embattled coalition is struggling to cling on to power.
The predicted results are also a blow to the AfD, which was polling high and predicted to win another state after a surge in support tied to its anti-immigration policies.
Scholz’s centre-left SPD won around 31 per cent against the AfD, which scored about 29 per cent, according to the projections.
Brandenburg, which surrounds Berlin like a doughnut, has been won by SPD in every election since Germany’s reunification in 1990 and is one of its two remaining eastern strongholds.
Although one of the smallest states by population, the vote is considered significant for the whole country and a strong indication of the mood of voters.
The centre-Right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Left-wing anti-immigration party the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) each received roughly 12 per cent of the vote, according to forecasts.
The Greens, with four and a half to five per cent, are in danger of not passing the minimum threshold to enter the state parliament.
It was the highest voter turnout in Brandenburg’s history with 74 per cent.
The early results suggest there could be a continuation of the “Kenya coalition” of SPD, CDU and the Greens under Dietmar Woidke, Brandenburg’s popular SPD premier.
A visibly relieved Mr Woidke celebrated the close win in a race where just weeks ago his party had trailed the AfD in the opinion polls.
“It was a very challenging campaign for us, but decisively we had a clear goal: we wanted to defend this state against a partly openly Right-wing extremist party,” Mr Woidke told broadcaster Tagesschau.
“We need to wait and see who can be in parliament [to form a coalition],” he added, referring to the Greens.
Kevin Kühnert, SPD’s general secretary, said: “For us in the national SPD, when it goes well tonight the problems ahead of us don’t get bigger or smaller.
“We have a long process ahead of us if we want success in next year’s federal elections.”
The AfD, which had vowed “to send Woidke into retirement”, nonetheless hailed its strong showing, declaring it was the “strongest force in the east”.
Tino Chrupalla, the party co-leader, said it had “taken gold once and silver twice” in three elections in the east this month.
It is the third worst result for CDU in post-war Germany’s history and its worst result in the east.
A recent survey in the state found that immigration was the top concern for many voters.
The decade-old AfD party has stoked and capitalised on public fears about irregular migration after a string of recent extremist attacks with suspected Islamist motives.
On Sept 1, AfD made historic gains in former communist East Germany, becoming the strongest party in Thuringia where it secured roughly 33 per cent of the vote.
In neighbouring Saxony, it emerged in a close second with 30 per cent, narrowly losing to CDU.
Despite its ballot box success, the AfD is unlikely to take power in any state since all other mainstream parties have so far ruled out entering into a coalition with the party.
But AfD’s rise has heaped political pressure on Mr Scholz and his governing allies, the Greens and the liberal Free Democrats, helping to spark further infighting.
At a national level, the three parties are now collectively polling less than the opposition conservatives, although political analysts say much could change before the federal election due in September 2025.